AMOM1.530%
as of Oct 16
LITE
GrowthLUMENTUM HOLDINGS INC
Lumentum Holdings Inc. manufactures and sells optical and photonic products in the Americas, the Asia-Pacific, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. It operates through two segments, Cloud & Networking and Industrial Tech. The Cloud & Networking segment offers optical and photonic chips, components, modules, and subsystems supplied to cloud data center operators, AI/ML infrastructure providers, and network equipment manufacturer customers that are building cloud data centers and network infrastructures.
Close · 3M
-21.01%
Held by 4 AI ETFs
Signal performance
Each tracked ETF's moves on this stock, grouped by fund. Returns are measured from the signal date to the latest close — hypothetical, no commissions or slippage.
Buy signals11
Win rate0% (0/11)
Avg buy return-23.41%
AMOM · Weight decrease · 5d
weight 1.820% → 1.530% (-0.290 pp)·stock down 7.8% in the 30 days before
Oct 16·entry $824.13·now $756.17
-8.25%
since Oct 16
AMOM · Weight decrease · 4d
weight 1.820% → 1.550% (-0.270 pp)·stock down 5.4% in the 30 days before
Oct 15·entry $869.54·now $756.17
-13.04%
since Oct 15
AMOM · Weight decrease · 3d
weight 1.820% → 1.580% (-0.240 pp)·stock up 6.8% in the 30 days before
Oct 14·entry $896.33·now $756.17
-15.64%
since Oct 14
AMOM · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 1.820% → 1.670% (-0.150 pp)·stock up 18.3% in the 30 days before
Oct 13·entry $987.99·now $756.17
-23.46%
since Oct 13
AMOM · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 1.850% → 1.750% (-0.100 pp)·stock up 6.0% in the 30 days before
Oct 8·entry $1048.60·now $756.17
-27.89%
since Oct 8
AMOM · Weight decrease · 3d
weight 1.820% → 1.770% (-0.050 pp)·stock up 4.9% in the 30 days before
Sep 24·entry $929.04·now $756.17
-18.61%
since Sep 24
AMOM · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 1.820% → 1.780% (-0.040 pp)·stock up 12.9% in the 30 days before
Sep 23·entry $937.00·now $756.17
-19.30%
since Sep 23
AMOM · Weight increase · 2d
weight 1.770% → 1.820% (+0.050 pp)·stock up 8.6% in the 30 days before
Sep 21·entry $954.49·now $756.17Fresh
-20.78%
since Sep 21
-9.44%
since Sep 14
-18.43%
since Sep 11
-23.54%
since Sep 9
-22.72%
since Sep 8
LQAI · Weight decrease · 5d
weight 0.470% → 0.360% (-0.110 pp)·stock down 7.8% in the 30 days before
Oct 16·entry $824.13·now $756.17
-8.25%
since Oct 16
LQAI · Weight decrease · 4d
weight 0.470% → 0.380% (-0.090 pp)·stock down 5.4% in the 30 days before
Oct 15·entry $869.54·now $756.17
-13.04%
since Oct 15
LQAI · Weight decrease · 3d
weight 0.470% → 0.390% (-0.080 pp)·stock up 6.8% in the 30 days before
Oct 14·entry $896.33·now $756.17
-15.64%
since Oct 14
LQAI · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 0.470% → 0.420% (-0.050 pp)·stock up 18.3% in the 30 days before
Oct 13·entry $987.99·now $756.17
-23.46%
since Oct 13
LQAI · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 0.480% → 0.450% (-0.030 pp)·stock up 6.0% in the 30 days before
Oct 8·entry $1048.60·now $756.17
-27.89%
since Oct 8
LQAI · Weight increase · 2d
weight 0.420% → 0.470% (+0.050 pp)·stock up 24.7% in the 30 days before
Oct 2·entry $1085.42·now $756.17Fresh
-30.33%
since Oct 2
LQAI · New entry · 1d
weight 0 → 0.420% (new)·stock up 8.8% in the 30 days before
Sep 29·entry $973.49·now $756.17Fresh
-22.32%
since Sep 29
AIVL · Exit · 1d
weight 0.296% → 0 (exited)·stock up 24.7% in the 30 days before
Oct 2·entry $1085.42·now $756.17
-30.33%
since Oct 2
AIVL · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 0.265% → 0.261% (-0.003 pp)·stock up 12.9% in the 30 days before
Sep 23·entry $937.00·now $756.17
-19.30%
since Sep 23
AIVL · Weight increase · 2d
weight 0.248% → 0.265% (+0.017 pp)·stock up 8.6% in the 30 days before
Sep 21·entry $954.49·now $756.17Fresh
-20.78%
since Sep 21
AIVL · Weight increase · 2d
stock down 5.1% in the 30 days before
Sep 16·entry $919.40·now $756.17Fresh
-17.75%
since Sep 16
-9.44%
since Sep 14
-18.43%
since Sep 11
-23.54%
since Sep 9
Sell signals show what the stock did after the AI exited. A negative number means the AI's exit was well-timed.
Buffett-style framework
Too hard to callas of Oct 4
The AI ETFs exhibit mixed signals, with some like AIEQ and LQAI initiating new positions or increasing weight, while AMOM shows a decreasing trend and AIVL recently exited. This contrasts with the framework's assessment that the company is too hard to reliably analyze for long-term investment, suggesting a divergence in analytical approaches regarding future predictability.
- Circle of CompetenceThe communications equipment industry, with its rapid technological shifts and cyclical demand, makes predicting Lumentum's unit economics and long-term cash flows too challenging for reliable ten-year projections.
- Economic MoatNot applicable as the business fails the circle of competence criterion.
- ManagementNot applicable as the business fails the circle of competence criterion.
- Financial HealthNot applicable as the business fails the circle of competence criterion.
- Margin of SafetyNot applicable as the business fails the circle of competence criterion.
This analysis concludes that Lumentum falls outside the circle of competence due to the inherent unpredictability of its cash flows within the rapidly evolving communications equipment industry. The framework is unable to provide a reliable long-term investment assessment for companies with such volatile unit economics, deeming it too complex for a value-investing approach focused on predictable earning power.
Educational interpretation generated by AI applying frameworks Warren Buffett documented in his shareholder letters and other public writings. Not a statement by Mr. Buffett or Berkshire Hathaway, and not investment advice.