LITE · LUMENTUM HOLDINGS INC

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Lumentum Holdings Inc. manufactures and sells optical and photonic products in the Americas, the Asia-Pacific, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. It operates through two segments, Cloud & Networking and Industrial Tech. The Cloud & Networking segment offers optical and photonic chips, components, modules, and subsystems supplied to cloud data center operators, AI/ML infrastructure providers, and network equipment manufacturer customers that are building cloud data centers and network infrastructures.

Close · 3M

-3.89%

Held by 4 AI ETFs

AMOM1.770%

as of Sep 2

BUZZ0.260%

as of Sep 2

AIVL0.229%

as of Sep 3

PQUS0.040%

as of Sep 1

Signal performance

Each tracked ETF's moves on this stock, grouped by fund. Returns are measured from the signal date to the latest close — hypothetical, no commissions or slippage.

Buy signals23

Win rate35% (8/23)

Avg buy return-2.61%

AMOMnow 1.770% of fund1 signal

AMOM · New entry · 1d

weight 0 → 1.770% (new)·stock up 2.5% in the 30 days before

Sep 2·entry $870.58·now $847.37Fresh

-2.67%

since Sep 2

BUZZnow 0.260% of fund2 signals

BUZZ · Weight increase · 2d

weight 0.250% → 0.280% (+0.030 pp)·stock up 44.0% in the 30 days before

Aug 26·entry $939.03·now $847.37Fresh

-9.76%

since Aug 26

BUZZ · New entry · 1d

weight 0 → 0.260% (new)·stock up 6.0% in the 30 days before

Aug 20·entry $879.28·now $847.37Fresh

-3.63%

since Aug 20

AIVLnow 0.229% of fund18 signals

AIVL · Weight increase · 3d

weight 0.266% → 0.306% (+0.040 pp)·stock up 58.7% in the 30 days before

Aug 27·entry $956.14·now $847.37Fresh

-11.38%

since Aug 27

AIVL · Weight increase · 2d

weight 0.266% → 0.299% (+0.033 pp)·stock up 44.0% in the 30 days before

Aug 26·entry $939.03·now $847.37Fresh

-9.76%

since Aug 26

AIVL · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 0.282% → 0.266% (-0.016 pp)·stock up 8.8% in the 30 days before

Aug 24·entry $830.17·now $847.37

+2.07%

since Aug 24

AIVL · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 0.309% → 0.264% (-0.045 pp)·stock down 1.2% in the 30 days before

Aug 19·entry $827.60·now $847.37

+2.39%

since Aug 19

AIVL · Accumulation · 5d

weight 0.269% → 0.309% (+0.040 pp)·stock up 32.2% in the 30 days before

Aug 17·entry $968.90·now $847.37Fresh

-12.54%

since Aug 17

AIVL · Accumulation · 5d

weight 0.251% → 0.292% (+0.041 pp)·stock up 31.1% in the 30 days before

Aug 14·entry $926.14·now $847.37Fresh

-8.51%

since Aug 14

AIVL · Accumulation · 5d

weight 0.232% → 0.279% (+0.047 pp)·stock up 17.1% in the 30 days before

Aug 13·entry $880.41·now $847.37Fresh

-3.75%

since Aug 13

AIVL · Accumulation · 6d

weight 0.180% → 0.298% (+0.117 pp)·stock up 14.4% in the 30 days before

Aug 12·entry $932.47·now $847.37Fresh

-9.13%

since Aug 12

AIVL · Accumulation · 5d

weight 0.193% → 0.263% (+0.070 pp)·stock up 6.8% in the 30 days before

Aug 11·entry $820.59·now $847.37Drifting

+3.26%

since Aug 11

AIVL · Weight increase · 4d

stock up 13.3% in the 30 days before

Aug 7·entry $890.17·now $847.37Fresh

-4.81%

since Aug 7

AIVL · Weight increase · 3d

stock up 18.5% in the 30 days before

Aug 6·entry $838.06·now $847.37Fresh

+1.11%

since Aug 6

AIVL · Weight increase · 2d

stock up 7.1% in the 30 days before

Aug 3·entry $779.89·now $847.37Drifting

+8.65%

since Aug 3

AIVL · Weight decrease · 3d

stock down 29.3% in the 30 days before

Jul 29·entry $602.35·now $847.37

+40.68%

since Jul 29

AIVL · Weight decrease · 2d

stock down 20.2% in the 30 days before

Jul 28·entry $651.93·now $847.37

+29.98%

since Jul 28

AIVL · Weight increase · 3d

stock down 1.5% in the 30 days before

Jul 21·entry $837.56·now $847.37Fresh

+1.17%

since Jul 21

AIVL · Weight increase · 2d

stock down 12.0% in the 30 days before

Jul 20·entry $765.55·now $847.37Chased

+10.69%

since Jul 20

AIVL · Weight decrease · 2d

stock down 26.2% in the 30 days before

Jul 16·entry $706.23·now $847.37

+19.98%

since Jul 16

AIVL · Weight increase · 3d

stock down 2.4% in the 30 days before

Jul 10·entry $802.01·now $847.37Drifting

+5.66%

since Jul 10

PQUSnow 0.040% of fund1 signal

PQUS · New entry · 1d

weight 0 → 0.040% (new)·stock up 4.0% in the 30 days before

Aug 21·entry $866.71·now $847.37Fresh

-2.23%

since Aug 21

AIEQno longer held8 signals

AIEQ · Exit · 1d

weight 1.630% → 0 (exited)·stock up 11.4% in the 30 days before

Sep 1·entry $868.95·now $847.37

-2.48%

since Sep 1

AIEQ · Weight increase · 3d

weight 1.510% → 1.730% (+0.220 pp)·stock up 29.1% in the 30 days before

Aug 28·entry $895.00·now $847.37Fresh

-5.32%

since Aug 28

AIEQ · Weight increase · 2d

weight 1.510% → 1.700% (+0.190 pp)·stock up 58.7% in the 30 days before

Aug 27·entry $956.14·now $847.37Fresh

-11.38%

since Aug 27

AIEQ · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 1.740% → 1.510% (-0.230 pp)·stock up 6.0% in the 30 days before

Aug 20·entry $879.28·now $847.37

-3.63%

since Aug 20

AIEQ · Weight increase · 2d

weight 1.470% → 1.680% (+0.210 pp)·stock up 17.1% in the 30 days before

Aug 13·entry $880.41·now $847.37Fresh

-3.75%

since Aug 13

AIEQ · Weight increase · 3d

weight 1.280% → 1.620% (+0.340 pp)·stock up 13.3% in the 30 days before

Aug 8·entry $813.51·now $847.37Drifting

+4.16%

since Aug 8

AIEQ · Weight increase · 2d

weight 1.280% → 1.530% (+0.250 pp)·stock up 13.3% in the 30 days before

Aug 7·entry $890.17·now $847.37Fresh

-4.81%

since Aug 7

AIEQ · New entry · 1d

stock down 10.9% in the 30 days before

Aug 2·entry $779.89·now $847.37Drifting

+8.65%

since Aug 2

Sell signals show what the stock did after the AI exited. A negative number means the AI's exit was well-timed.

Buffett-style framework

Too hard to callas of Aug 9

The AI ETFs, AIEQ and AIVL, are actively accumulating shares and making new entries into Lumentum, signaling a bullish outlook on the company's future. This stands in stark contrast to the Buffett-style framework's verdict of "Too Hard," which deems the company's long-term earning power too unpredictable for investment analysis. The AI models appear to prioritize growth opportunities in a dynamic sector, while the value investing framework emphasizes predictability and stability.

Circle of CompetenceThe communications equipment industry is subject to rapid technological change and uncertain product cycles, making long-term cash flow projections inherently difficult within the framework's strict predictability requirements.
Economic MoatThis stage is not assessed because the business fails the circle of competence test.
ManagementThis stage is not assessed because the business fails the circle of competence test.
Financial HealthThis stage is not assessed because the business fails the circle of competence test.
Margin of SafetyThis stage is not assessed because the business fails the circle of competence test, making intrinsic value estimation unreliable.

Lumentum Holdings Inc. falls outside the circle of competence due to the inherently unpredictable nature of the communications equipment industry, making it impossible to reliably project its ten-year cash flows. Therefore, a Buffett-style analysis concludes that the company is "Too Hard" to evaluate, rendering further assessment of its moat, management, financial health, or margin of safety impractical. While current financial metrics like ROE are strong, they do not overcome the fundamental challenge of long-term predictability.

Educational interpretation generated by AI applying frameworks Warren Buffett documented in his shareholder letters and other public writings. Not a statement by Mr. Buffett or Berkshire Hathaway, and not investment advice.