LLY · ELI LILLY & CO

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Eli Lilly and Company discovers, develops, manufactures, and markets human pharmaceutical products in the United States, Europe, China, Japan, and internationally. The company offers cardiometabolic health products, including Basaglar, Humalog, Humalog Mix 75/25, Humalog U-100, Humalog U-200, Humalog Mix 50/50, insulin lispro, insulin lispro protamine, insulin lispro mix 75/25, Humulin, Humulin 70/30, Humulin N, Humulin R, Humulin U-500 for diabetes; Jardiance, Mounjaro, and Trulicity for type 2 diabetes; and Zepbound for obesity. It also provides oncology products, such as Cyramza for the second-line treatment of gastric cancer or gastro-esophageal junction adenocarcinoma; Erbitux for colorectal cancers and head and neck cancers; Inluriyo for breast cancer; Jaypirca for chronic lymphocytic leukemia or small lymphocytic lymphoma; Retevmo for the treatment of metastatic NSCLC; TYVYT for classic hodgkin's lymphoma; and Verzenio for breast cancer.

Close · 3M

+31.18%

Held by 3 AI ETFs

PQUS2.200%

as of Sep 1

BUZZ0.300%

as of Sep 2

AIEQ0.050%

as of Sep 4

Signal performance

Each tracked ETF's moves on this stock, grouped by fund. Returns are measured from the signal date to the latest close — hypothetical, no commissions or slippage.

Buy signals13

Win rate31% (4/13)

Avg buy return-3.74%

PQUSnow 2.200% of fund9 signals

PQUS · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 2.110% → 2.070% (-0.040 pp)·stock down 2.8% in the 30 days before

Aug 27·entry $1176.10·now $1159.60

-1.40%

since Aug 27

PQUS · Weight increase · 3d

weight 2.000% → 2.140% (+0.140 pp)·stock up 5.9% in the 30 days before

Aug 21·entry $1255.40·now $1159.60Fresh

-7.63%

since Aug 21

PQUS · Weight increase · 2d

weight 2.000% → 2.100% (+0.100 pp)·stock up 7.0% in the 30 days before

Aug 20·entry $1244.40·now $1159.60Fresh

-6.81%

since Aug 20

PQUS · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 2.080% → 2.000% (-0.080 pp)·stock up 0.9% in the 30 days before

Aug 16·entry $1183.16·now $1159.60

-1.99%

since Aug 16

PQUS · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 2.210% → 2.050% (-0.160 pp)·stock down 3.6% in the 30 days before

Aug 2·entry $1121.36·now $1159.60

+3.41%

since Aug 2

PQUS · Weight increase · 2d

weight 2.050% → 2.210% (+0.160 pp)·stock down 3.6% in the 30 days before

Jul 31·entry $1148.84·now $1159.60Fresh

+0.94%

since Jul 31

PQUS · Weight increase · 3d

weight 1.920% → 2.120% (+0.200 pp)·stock up 5.0% in the 30 days before

Jul 19·entry $1146.90·now $1159.60Fresh

+1.11%

since Jul 19

PQUS · Weight increase · 2d

stock up 5.0% in the 30 days before

Jul 18·entry $1146.90·now $1159.60Fresh

+1.11%

since Jul 18

PQUS · Weight decrease · 2d

stock up 3.8% in the 30 days before

Jul 12·entry $1181.87·now $1159.60

-1.88%

since Jul 12

BUZZnow 0.300% of fund8 signals

BUZZ · Weight increase · 3d

weight 0.260% → 0.320% (+0.060 pp)·stock up 7.0% in the 30 days before

Aug 20·entry $1244.40·now $1159.60Fresh

-6.81%

since Aug 20

BUZZ · Weight increase · 2d

weight 0.260% → 0.290% (+0.030 pp)·stock up 8.9% in the 30 days before

Aug 19·entry $1280.34·now $1159.60Fresh

-9.43%

since Aug 19

BUZZ · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 0.280% → 0.260% (-0.020 pp)·stock up 4.5% in the 30 days before

Aug 13·entry $1209.00·now $1159.60

-4.09%

since Aug 13

BUZZ · Weight increase · 4d

weight 0.270% → 0.310% (+0.040 pp)·stock down 1.6% in the 30 days before

Jul 29·entry $1210.02·now $1159.60Fresh

-4.17%

since Jul 29

BUZZ · Weight increase · 3d

weight 0.270% → 0.300% (+0.030 pp)·stock up 1.0% in the 30 days before

Jul 28·entry $1220.66·now $1159.60Fresh

-5.00%

since Jul 28

BUZZ · Weight increase · 2d

weight 0.270% → 0.290% (+0.020 pp)·stock up 7.1% in the 30 days before

Jul 24·entry $1196.03·now $1159.60Fresh

-3.05%

since Jul 24

BUZZ · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 0.290% → 0.270% (-0.020 pp)·stock up 7.0% in the 30 days before

Jul 21·entry $1175.41·now $1159.60

-1.35%

since Jul 21

BUZZ · Weight decrease · 2d

stock up 5.9% in the 30 days before

Jul 9·entry $1216.95·now $1159.60

-4.71%

since Jul 9

AIEQnow 0.050% of fund7 signals

AIEQ · Sudden change · 1d

weight 0.570% → 0.050% (-0.520 pp)·stock up 3.4% in the 30 days before

Sep 1·entry $1160.00·now $1159.60

-0.03%

since Sep 1

AIEQ · Weight increase · 2d

weight 0.560% → 0.620% (+0.060 pp)·stock up 7.0% in the 30 days before

Aug 20·entry $1244.40·now $1159.60Fresh

-6.81%

since Aug 20

AIEQ · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 0.950% → 0.550% (-0.400 pp)·stock down 3.6% in the 30 days before

Aug 2·entry $1121.36·now $1159.60

+3.41%

since Aug 2

AIEQ · Weight increase · 2d

weight 0.900% → 0.930% (+0.030 pp)·stock up 7.1% in the 30 days before

Jul 26·entry $1197.53·now $1159.60Fresh

-3.17%

since Jul 26

AIEQ · Weight increase · 2d

weight 0.880% → 0.910% (+0.030 pp)·stock up 5.0% in the 30 days before

Jul 19·entry $1146.90·now $1159.60Fresh

+1.11%

since Jul 19

AIEQ · Weight decrease · 2d

stock up 3.8% in the 30 days before

Jul 11·entry $1181.87·now $1159.60

-1.88%

since Jul 11

AIEQ · Sudden change · 1d

stock up 10.1% in the 30 days before

Jul 1·entry $1191.74·now $1159.60

-2.70%

since Jul 1

LQAIno longer held1 signal

LQAI · Exit · 1d

stock up 9.8% in the 30 days before

Jul 7·entry $1235.56·now $1159.60

-6.15%

since Jul 7

Sell signals show what the stock did after the AI exited. A negative number means the AI's exit was well-timed.

Buffett-style framework

Fails the frameworkas of Aug 16

AI ETFs PQUS, BUZZ, and AIEQ are showing a consistent trend of decreasing their weight or making sudden large changes indicating selling or reducing their positions in Eli Lilly. This activity aligns with the framework's 'Fail' verdict, particularly concerning the lack of a margin of safety at current elevated prices. The AI's actions suggest a market view that aligns with an unattractive valuation, despite the company's strong business quality.

Circle of CompetenceAs a large, diversified pharmaceutical company, Eli Lilly's underlying earning power and long-term cash flows are reasonably predictable due to the industry's structure, patent protections, and ongoing innovation cycle.
Economic MoatEli Lilly possesses a strong economic moat derived primarily from its extensive portfolio of patented drugs, significant R&D capabilities, and established brand reputation within the healthcare sector.
ManagementInformation on management's candor, capital allocation discipline, or ownership stakes is not available in the provided data, preventing an assessment of this stage.
Financial HealthDespite a high reported ROE, the absence of 10-year ROE averages, operating margin trends, debt specifics, and owner earnings calculations means a comprehensive assessment of long-term financial health is not possible, leading to a fail on conservative grounds.
Margin of SafetyThe exceptionally high valuation multiples (PER 43.17, PBR 38.29, EV/EBITDA 88.43) indicate that the market is pricing in substantial future growth, leaving no discernible margin of safety relative to a conservative estimate of intrinsic value.

Eli Lilly & Co operates within a predictable industry and benefits from a durable economic moat driven by its patent portfolio and R&D. However, a full assessment of its financial health is hindered by a lack of comprehensive data, and the current market price reflects extremely high expectations, leaving no margin of safety for a value investor. Therefore, despite being a 'wonderful company,' the valuation renders it unattractive by this framework.

Educational interpretation generated by AI applying frameworks Warren Buffett documented in his shareholder letters and other public writings. Not a statement by Mr. Buffett or Berkshire Hathaway, and not investment advice.