AMOM5.790%
as of Oct 16
LLY
GrowthELI LILLY & CO
Eli Lilly and Company discovers, develops, manufactures, and markets human pharmaceutical products in the United States, Europe, China, Japan, and internationally. The company offers cardiometabolic health products, including Basaglar, Humalog, Humalog Mix 75/25, Humalog U-100, Humalog U-200, Humalog Mix 50/50, insulin lispro, insulin lispro protamine, insulin lispro mix 75/25, Humulin, Humulin 70/30, Humulin N, Humulin R, Humulin U-500 for diabetes; Jardiance, Mounjaro, and Trulicity for type 2 diabetes; and Zepbound for obesity. It also provides oncology products, such as Cyramza for the second-line treatment of gastric cancer or gastro-esophageal junction adenocarcinoma; Erbitux for colorectal cancers and head and neck cancers; Inluriyo for breast cancer; Jaypirca for chronic lymphocytic leukemia or small lymphocytic lymphoma; Retevmo for the treatment of metastatic NSCLC; TYVYT for classic hodgkin's lymphoma; and Verzenio for breast cancer.
Close · 3M
+12.76%
Held by 4 AI ETFs
Signal performance
Each tracked ETF's moves on this stock, grouped by fund. Returns are measured from the signal date to the latest close — hypothetical, no commissions or slippage.
Buy signals22
Win rate77% (17/22)
Avg buy return+2.70%
AMOM · Accumulation · 5d
weight 4.830% → 5.790% (+0.960 pp)·stock up 9.1% in the 30 days before
Oct 16·entry $1257.03·now $1273.46Fresh
+1.31%
since Oct 16
AMOM · Accumulation · 5d
weight 4.680% → 5.550% (+0.870 pp)·stock up 10.0% in the 30 days before
Oct 15·entry $1251.61·now $1273.46Fresh
+1.75%
since Oct 15
AMOM · Sudden change · 1d
weight 4.890% → 5.280% (+0.390 pp)·stock up 6.4% in the 30 days before
Oct 14·entry $1208.74·now $1273.46
+5.35%
since Oct 14
AMOM · Weight increase · 2d
weight 4.680% → 4.860% (+0.180 pp)·stock up 4.0% in the 30 days before
Oct 8·entry $1169.60·now $1273.46Drifting
+8.88%
since Oct 8
AMOM · New entry · 1d
weight 0 → 4.710% (new)·stock down 1.5% in the 30 days before
Oct 2·entry $1142.85·now $1273.46Chased
+11.43%
since Oct 2
PQUS · Accumulation · 5d
weight 2.220% → 2.480% (+0.260 pp)·stock up 7.7% in the 30 days before
Oct 23·entry $1273.46·now $1273.46Fresh
0.00%
since Oct 23
PQUS · Accumulation · 5d
weight 2.250% → 2.530% (+0.280 pp)·stock up 13.5% in the 30 days before
Oct 22·entry $1306.69·now $1273.46Fresh
-2.54%
since Oct 22
PQUS · Accumulation · 5d
weight 2.240% → 2.430% (+0.190 pp)·stock up 8.6% in the 30 days before
Oct 21·entry $1270.75·now $1273.46Fresh
+0.21%
since Oct 21
PQUS · Accumulation · 6d
weight 2.230% → 2.470% (+0.240 pp)·stock up 10.2% in the 30 days before
Oct 20·entry $1283.66·now $1273.46Fresh
-0.79%
since Oct 20
PQUS · Accumulation · 5d
weight 2.260% → 2.440% (+0.180 pp)·stock up 9.1% in the 30 days before
Oct 16·entry $1257.03·now $1273.46Fresh
+1.31%
since Oct 16
PQUS · Accumulation · 5d
weight 2.200% → 2.400% (+0.200 pp)·stock up 10.0% in the 30 days before
Oct 15·entry $1251.61·now $1273.46Fresh
+1.75%
since Oct 15
PQUS · Accumulation · 5d
weight 2.180% → 2.330% (+0.150 pp)·stock up 6.4% in the 30 days before
Oct 14·entry $1208.74·now $1273.46Drifting
+5.35%
since Oct 14
PQUS · Accumulation · 5d
weight 2.200% → 2.250% (+0.050 pp)·stock up 6.0% in the 30 days before
Oct 12·entry $1182.62·now $1273.46Drifting
+7.68%
since Oct 12
PQUS · Weight increase · 2d
weight 2.180% → 2.260% (+0.080 pp)·stock up 5.8% in the 30 days before
Oct 7·entry $1188.72·now $1273.46Drifting
+7.13%
since Oct 7
+8.28%
since Aug 27
PQUS · Weight increase · 3d
stock up 5.9% in the 30 days before
Aug 21·entry $1255.40·now $1273.46Fresh
+1.44%
since Aug 21
PQUS · Weight increase · 2d
stock up 7.0% in the 30 days before
Aug 20·entry $1244.40·now $1273.46Drifting
+2.34%
since Aug 20
+7.63%
since Aug 16
LQAI · Accumulation · 5d
weight 1.050% → 1.210% (+0.160 pp)·stock up 13.5% in the 30 days before
Oct 22·entry $1306.69·now $1273.46Fresh
-2.54%
since Oct 22
LQAI · Weight increase · 3d
weight 1.050% → 1.170% (+0.120 pp)·stock up 9.1% in the 30 days before
Oct 16·entry $1257.03·now $1273.46Fresh
+1.31%
since Oct 16
LQAI · Weight increase · 2d
weight 1.050% → 1.140% (+0.090 pp)·stock up 10.0% in the 30 days before
Oct 15·entry $1251.61·now $1273.46Fresh
+1.75%
since Oct 15
LQAI · Weight decrease · 3d
weight 1.080% → 1.030% (-0.050 pp)·stock down 1.5% in the 30 days before
Oct 2·entry $1142.85·now $1273.46
+11.43%
since Oct 2
LQAI · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 1.080% → 1.040% (-0.040 pp)·stock down 0.9% in the 30 days before
Oct 1·entry $1149.85·now $1273.46
+10.75%
since Oct 1
LQAI · New entry · 1d
weight 0 → 1.080% (new)·stock up 0.9% in the 30 days before
Sep 29·entry $1184.63·now $1273.46Drifting
+7.50%
since Sep 29
Sell signals show what the stock did after the AI exited. A negative number means the AI's exit was well-timed.
Buffett-style framework
Fails the frameworkas of Oct 18
AMOM, PQUS and LQAI have all been accumulating LLY in October 2026, with AMOM at 5.55% and PQUS at 2.44% of their portfolios, which fits momentum and quant signals that reward rapid growth. A Buffett-style read disagrees because the stock is a high-quality business bought at a price that offers no cushion, so the AIs are buying strength while the framework is demanding a discount.
- Circle of CompetenceBranded pharmaceuticals are a business Berkshire has owned in the past, and Lilly's cash flows are reasonably modelable even though they now depend heavily on the GLP-1 franchise (tirzepatide) holding its volume and pricing.
- Economic MoatPatent protection, manufacturing scale in injectables, and physician and payer familiarity give Lilly a real but finite moat, because patents expire and pricing pressure and competition from Novo Nordisk and newer entrants will test it over ten years.
- ManagementThe data provided does not show shareholder-letter candor or insider ownership, although the company has executed well on its R&D pipeline and has been investing heavily in manufacturing capacity.
- Financial HealthAn ROE of 92.58% and revenue growth of 49.58% show exceptional current earning power, but the ROE is inflated by a small equity base and the 10-year record includes weaker years, so owner earnings need a normalized view of the heavy capex now underway.
- Margin of SafetyAt 43.85 times earnings, 89.76 times EV/EBITDA and a $1.17 trillion market cap, the price already assumes years of flawless GLP-1 growth, leaving no visible margin of safety.
Lilly is a wonderful business with a real but patent-dependent moat and outstanding current returns. The valuation, however, requires near-perfect execution for a decade, so it fails on margin of safety. A meaningful price decline, or evidence of durable earnings beyond the GLP-1 cycle, would change the conclusion.
Educational interpretation generated by AI applying frameworks Warren Buffett documented in his shareholder letters and other public writings. Not a statement by Mr. Buffett or Berkshire Hathaway, and not investment advice.