Last refreshed: July 21, 2026 (US ET)
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MCD

Growth

MCDONALD'S CORP

Consumer Discretionary·RestaurantsYield: Mid (1-3%)

McDonald's Corporation owns, operates, and franchises restaurants under the McDonald's brand in the United States and internationally. It offers food and beverages, including hamburgers and cheeseburgers, various chicken sandwiches, fries, shakes, frozen desserts, sundaes, soft serve cones, cookies, pies, soft drinks, coffee, and other beverages; and full or limited breakfast, as well as sells various other products during limited-time promotions. The company owns and operates franchised restaurants under various structures, including conventional franchise, developmental license, or affiliate.

Close · 3M

-19.09%

MCD · 3M

-19.09%

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Held by 2 AI ETFs

PQUS0.750%

as of Jul 21

AIEQ0.050%

as of Jul 20

Signal performance

Each tracked ETF's moves on this stock, grouped by fund. Returns are measured from the signal date to the latest close — hypothetical, no commissions or slippage.

Buy signals4
Win rate0% (0/4)
Avg buy return-4.31%
PQUSnow 0.750% of fund5 signals

PQUS · Weight decrease · 2d

Pictet's AI ranking system, managing PQUS's US large-cap universe with sector-balance and concentration rules for its ~165 holdings, initiated a consecutive weight decrease for McDonald's based on evolving quantitative signals. Given the fund’s periodic, not daily, rebalancing cadence and measured turnover, the AI system sequentially lowered MCD's allocation, moving from 0.78% to 0.73% over eight days. This methodical reduction suggests that McDonald's recent price performance, particularly its 90-day return of -17.3%, likely triggered a lower ranking within the AI's selection process. The system's assessment, which led to MCD being de-emphasized while trading at 80% of its 52-week high, indicates a re-evaluation of its attractiveness relative to other US large caps.

weight 0.760% → 0.730% (-0.030 pp)·stock down 7.0% in the 30 days before

Jul 17·entry $267.71·now $267.64

-0.03%
since Jul 17

PQUS · Weight decrease · 2d

MCD’s PER of 22.59 and PBR of 15.3, alongside its 95.13% ROE, likely position it within PQUS's US large-cap universe as a company with considerable profitability, aligning with a style favoring established companies rather than volatile growth plays. However, MCD's 90-day return of -17.3% and its current price of $274.60, sitting at 81% of its 52-week high, indicate a sustained period of underperformance leading up to early July 2026. This price movement, observed by Pictet Asset Management's AI ranking system, appears to have triggered a re-evaluation, resulting in a subtle but consecutive weight decrease from 0.77% on July 11th to 0.76% on July 12th. The AI's decision, consistent with PQUS's "measured turnover" style and sector-balance rules, reflects a controlled adjustment rather than an abrupt exit, potentially downgrading MCD's rank within the large-cap universe without violating concentration constraints.

weight 0.780% → 0.760% (-0.020 pp)·stock down 2.7% in the 30 days before

Jul 12·entry $272.61·now $267.64

-1.82%
since Jul 12

PQUS · Weight increase · 2d

Pictet Asset Management’s PQUS, utilizing an AI ranking system for its approximately 165 US large-cap holdings, adjusted its exposure to McDonald's. Given the fund’s periodic rebalancing cadence, the consecutive weight increases observed on June 18th and 19th, moving from 0.76% to 0.79% within the portfolio, indicate the AI system identified an enhanced relative position for MCD. This reweighting likely coincided with McDonald’s shares trading at 82% of their 52-week high, a level suggesting increased attractiveness to the system after recent price declines. The AI's sector-balanced approach and consideration of metrics like MCD's 95.13% Return on Equity probably factored into this decision.

weight 0.760% → 0.790% (+0.030 pp)·stock down 0.8% in the 30 days before

Jun 19·entry $270.10·now $267.64Fresh

-0.91%
since Jun 19

PQUS · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 0.770% → 0.750% (-0.020 pp)·stock down 4.4% in the 30 days before

Jun 4·entry $272.72·now $267.64

-1.86%
since Jun 4

PQUS · Weight increase · 2d

The asset allocation in PQUS for McDonald's shows a stepped increase from 0.68% to 0.71% followed by more gradual daily increments, concluding at 0.73% over the week. This measured, upward adjustment aligns with the Pictet AI’s method of identifying opportunities within the US large-cap universe, particularly as MCD currently trades near its 52-week low of $274.60 after a 10.8% decline in 30 days. The AI ranking system likely interprets the stock's current valuation, at 81% of its 52-week high, as attractive given McDonald's strong underlying financial performance, including a 95.13% return on equity and 6.77% revenue growth. Such an incremental build-up reflects PQUS's stated style of US large-cap investing with measured turnover, allowing the AI to gradually increase exposure to a fundamentally sound company while managing its sector-balance and concentration rules.

weight 0.710% → 0.730% (+0.020 pp)·stock down 10.0% in the 30 days before

May 17·entry $282.47·now $267.64Fresh

-5.25%
since May 17
AIEQnow 0.050% of fund2 signals

AIEQ · Weight decrease · 2d

The weight for McDonald's Corp. within AIEQ exhibited a gradual decline over several days, moving from 0.41% to 0.39% by June 30th, which was then followed by a very sharp reduction to 0.05% on July 1st. This two-phase pattern indicates IBM Watson NLP detected an accumulating negative sentiment or shifting fundamental outlook for MCD, despite its high ROE of 95.13%, before a more definitive bearish signal triggered the drastic cut. Given that McDonald's stock, a Consumer Discretionary holding, was trading at $269.43—near the lower boundary of its 52-week range and showing sustained negative returns across 30, 90, and 365 days—the AI's assessment likely identified heightened risk. AIEQ’s strategy, driven by daily rebalancing and high turnover, enables EquBot to swiftly reduce exposure to companies where both sentiment and fundamental analysis indicate a deteriorating outlook or a drop in ranking.

weight 0.400% → 0.050% (-0.350 pp)·stock down 2.4% in the 30 days before

Jul 1·entry $269.43·now $267.64

-0.66%
since Jul 1

AIEQ · Weight decrease · 2d

The AI ETF likely initiated consecutive weight decreases for MCD due to its high valuation (PBR 15.3, PER 23.79) disproportionate to its modest 3.73% revenue growth, suggesting overpricing despite strong ROE. The significant final reduction indicates a strong negative sentiment. Retail investors should learn that high valuation multiples, even with robust profitability, can trigger AI divestment if growth doesn't justify the price, emphasizing the need for a balanced view beyond single metrics.

weight 0.550% → 0.140% (-0.410 pp)·stock down 6.7% in the 30 days before

May 3·entry $284.10·now $267.64

-5.79%
since May 3
BUZZno longer held4 signals

BUZZ · Exit · 1d

MCD’s portfolio allocation in BUZZ showed a subtle reduction from 0.22% to 0.21% over several days, culminating in its complete removal to 0.00% on July 16, 2026. This gradual diminution and subsequent exclusion reflect the algorithmic sentiment tracker’s response to a likely erosion of positive public perception surrounding McDonald’s. With MCD experiencing a 90-day return of -18.4% and trading near its 52-week low of $264.54, the positive sentiment intensity, as captured by BUZZ’s NLP analysis of social media, blogs, and news, likely fell below the threshold required for inclusion. Consequently, during its monthly index reconstitution, the ETF, which tracks collective retail-crowd signals, removed the stock, aligning its holdings with the detected shift in market sentiment.

weight 0.210% → 0 (exited)·stock down 4.4% in the 30 days before

Jul 16·entry $273.46·now $267.64

-2.13%
since Jul 16

BUZZ · Weight increase · 2d

McDonald's currently trades at $284.77, near the lower end of its 52-week range at 83% of its high, following 30-day, 90-day, and 1-year returns of -3.0%, -10.9%, and -9.3% respectively. This downward price trajectory appears to have coincided with an increase in positive social media and news commentary, which BUZZ's NLP methodology would identify. As a sentiment-driven ETF, BUZZ incrementally raised MCD's weight from 0.38% on June 1st to 0.45% by June 10th, reflecting a detected sustained uptick in positive market perception. Such an algorithmic sentiment tracker would likely register increased positive discussion around a company like MCD, which maintains a P/E of 23.12, P/B of 15.3, and a 95.13% ROE, suggesting a foundational business performance that might attract sentiment shifts during price weakness. The observed consecutive weight increases, even with minor daily fluctuations, indicate the index's monthly rebalancing aggregated a strengthening "retail-crowd signal" in favor of MCD as it traded closer to its 52-week low.

weight 0.420% → 0.450% (+0.030 pp)·stock up 2.9% in the 30 days before

Jun 10·entry $282.52·now $267.64Fresh

-5.27%
since Jun 10

BUZZ · Weight decrease · 2d

MCD’s financial profile, with a P/E of 22.75, P/B of 15.3, revenue growth of 6.77%, and an ROE of 95.13%, primarily shapes the public discourse that the BUZZ ETF monitors, as its selection criteria focus on positive sentiment intensity rather than direct fundamental analysis. The algorithmic sentiment tracker’s NLP engine detected sufficient positive social media and news discussion for MCD to enter the portfolio on May 21st at 0.43% after days of 0% weighting. However, the subsequent consecutive weight decrease to 0.42% and then 0.41% by May 26th indicates a detected reduction in positive sentiment. This cooling of retail-crowd interest coincided with MCD's recent price trajectory, including a -8.3% 30-day return, leaving its current price of $280.92 at 82% of its 52-week high.

weight 0.430% → 0.410% (-0.020 pp)·stock down 6.7% in the 30 days before

May 26·entry $279.26·now $267.64

-4.16%
since May 26

BUZZ · New entry · 1d

weight 0 → 0.430% (new)·stock down 5.3% in the 30 days before

May 21·entry $284.18·now $267.64Fresh

-5.82%
since May 21
QRFTno longer held6 signals

QRFT · Exit · 1d

The AI ETF likely divested from McDonald's because its high valuation metrics, such as a PER of 23.63 and PBR of 15.3, were deemed disproportionate to its moderate 3.73% revenue growth. For retail investors, this highlights the importance of scrutinizing a stock's valuation relative to its growth potential, even for well-known companies, to avoid holding overvalued assets.

weight 0.450% → 0 (exited)·stock down 7.5% in the 30 days before

May 4·entry $284.10·now $267.64

-5.79%
since May 4

QRFT · Weight decrease · 2d

The AI ETF likely decreased MCD's weight because its high valuation multiples (PER 24.45, PBR 15.3) coupled with modest 3.73% revenue growth may signal a perceived overvaluation despite its exceptional ROE. For retail investors, this suggests reviewing whether MCD's current price adequately reflects its future growth potential. It highlights the importance of balancing strong profitability with reasonable valuation.

weight 0.490% → 0.460% (-0.030 pp)·stock down 6.1% in the 30 days before

Apr 27·entry $290.21·now $267.64

-7.78%
since Apr 27

QRFT · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 0.500% → 0.480% (-0.020 pp)·stock down 2.7% in the 30 days before

Apr 22·entry $300.07·now $267.64

-10.81%
since Apr 22

QRFT · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 0.520% → 0.500% (-0.020 pp)·stock down 6.2% in the 30 days before

Apr 15·entry $306.26·now $267.64

-12.61%
since Apr 15

QRFT · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 0.540% → 0.520% (-0.020 pp)·stock down 7.2% in the 30 days before

Apr 8·entry $307.01·now $267.64

-12.82%
since Apr 8

QRFT · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 0.530% → 0.510% (-0.020 pp)·stock down 7.5% in the 30 days before

Apr 1·entry $307.29·now $267.64

-12.90%
since Apr 1

Sell signals show what the stock did after the AI exited. A negative number means the AI's exit was well-timed.

Buffett-style framework

Fails the frameworkas of Jul 12

The AI ETFs PQUS and AIEQ show a clear trend of decreasing their weight or making large negative changes in their McDonald's holdings. This activity aligns with the framework's "Fail" verdict, as the analysis indicates the company does not meet all the necessary criteria for a Buffett-style investment at the current time.

  • Circle of CompetenceMcDonald's global franchise model and strong brand provide stable, predictable unit economics, allowing for reasonable long-term cash flow projections.
  • Economic MoatMcDonald's benefits from an exceptionally strong global brand and significant scale advantages in its supply chain and real estate, creating a durable economic moat.
  • ManagementThe provided financial snapshot does not offer sufficient detail to assess management's candor, capital allocation discipline beyond a high ROE, or direct skin in the game.
  • Financial HealthWhile the current ROE is exceptionally high at 95.13%, the lack of 10-year ROE history, operating margin trends, detailed debt metrics, and owner earnings prevents a comprehensive assessment of financial health.
  • Margin of SafetyWithout a conservative estimate of intrinsic value, it is not possible to determine if the current market price offers a sufficient margin of safety.

While McDonald's operates within a clear circle of competence and possesses a strong economic moat, significant gaps in the provided financial data preclude a full assessment of its management discipline, long-term financial health, and crucially, whether the current price offers a margin of safety. Consequently, despite its robust business foundation, the company fails to meet all the stringent criteria required for a Buffett-style investment.

Educational interpretation generated by AI applying frameworks Warren Buffett documented in his shareholder letters and other public writings. Not a statement by Mr. Buffett or Berkshire Hathaway, and not investment advice.