MCD · MCDONALD'S CORP

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McDonald's Corporation owns, operates, and franchises restaurants under the McDonald's brand in the United States and internationally. It offers food and beverages, including hamburgers and cheeseburgers, various chicken sandwiches, fries, shakes, frozen desserts, sundaes, soft serve cones, cookies, pies, soft drinks, coffee, and other beverages; and full or limited breakfast, as well as sells various other products during limited-time promotions. The company owns and operates franchised restaurants under various structures, including conventional franchise, developmental license, or affiliate.

Close · 3M

-13.27%

Held by 2 AI ETFs

PQUS0.920%

as of Sep 1

AIEQ0.050%

as of Sep 4

Signal performance

Each tracked ETF's moves on this stock, grouped by fund. Returns are measured from the signal date to the latest close — hypothetical, no commissions or slippage.

Buy signals6

Win rate0% (0/6)

Avg buy return-6.14%

PQUSnow 0.920% of fund8 signals

PQUS · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 1.200% → 0.950% (-0.250 pp)·stock down 0.2% in the 30 days before

Aug 15·entry $265.53·now $259.63

-2.22%

since Aug 15

PQUS · Weight increase · 2d

weight 0.900% → 1.180% (+0.280 pp)·stock up 0.4% in the 30 days before

Jul 31·entry $270.64·now $259.63Fresh

-4.07%

since Jul 31

PQUS · Weight increase · 2d

weight 0.730% → 0.900% (+0.170 pp)·stock down 3.3% in the 30 days before

Jul 26·entry $270.67·now $259.63Fresh

-4.08%

since Jul 26

PQUS · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 0.760% → 0.730% (-0.030 pp)·stock down 7.0% in the 30 days before

Jul 17·entry $267.71·now $259.63

-3.02%

since Jul 17

PQUS · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 0.780% → 0.760% (-0.020 pp)·stock down 2.7% in the 30 days before

Jul 12·entry $272.61·now $259.63

-4.76%

since Jul 12

PQUS · Weight increase · 2d

weight 0.760% → 0.790% (+0.030 pp)·stock down 0.8% in the 30 days before

Jun 19·entry $270.10·now $259.63Fresh

-3.88%

since Jun 19

PQUS · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 0.770% → 0.750% (-0.020 pp)·stock down 4.4% in the 30 days before

Jun 4·entry $272.72·now $259.63

-4.80%

since Jun 4

PQUS · Weight increase · 2d

weight 0.710% → 0.730% (+0.020 pp)·stock down 10.0% in the 30 days before

May 17·entry $282.47·now $259.63Fresh

-8.09%

since May 17

AIEQnow 0.050% of fund2 signals

AIEQ · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 0.400% → 0.050% (-0.350 pp)·stock down 2.4% in the 30 days before

Jul 1·entry $269.43·now $259.63

-3.64%

since Jul 1

AIEQ · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 0.550% → 0.140% (-0.410 pp)·stock down 6.7% in the 30 days before

May 3·entry $284.10·now $259.63

-8.61%

since May 3

BUZZno longer held4 signals

BUZZ · Exit · 1d

weight 0.210% → 0 (exited)·stock down 4.4% in the 30 days before

Jul 16·entry $273.46·now $259.63

-5.06%

since Jul 16

BUZZ · Weight increase · 2d

weight 0.420% → 0.450% (+0.030 pp)·stock up 2.9% in the 30 days before

Jun 10·entry $282.52·now $259.63Fresh

-8.10%

since Jun 10

BUZZ · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 0.430% → 0.410% (-0.020 pp)·stock down 6.7% in the 30 days before

May 26·entry $279.26·now $259.63

-7.03%

since May 26

BUZZ · New entry · 1d

weight 0 → 0.430% (new)·stock down 5.3% in the 30 days before

May 21·entry $284.18·now $259.63Fresh

-8.64%

since May 21

Sell signals show what the stock did after the AI exited. A negative number means the AI's exit was well-timed.

Buffett-style framework

Fails the frameworkas of Jul 12

The AI ETFs PQUS and AIEQ show a clear trend of decreasing their weight or making large negative changes in their McDonald's holdings. This activity aligns with the framework's "Fail" verdict, as the analysis indicates the company does not meet all the necessary criteria for a Buffett-style investment at the current time.

Circle of CompetenceMcDonald's global franchise model and strong brand provide stable, predictable unit economics, allowing for reasonable long-term cash flow projections.
Economic MoatMcDonald's benefits from an exceptionally strong global brand and significant scale advantages in its supply chain and real estate, creating a durable economic moat.
ManagementThe provided financial snapshot does not offer sufficient detail to assess management's candor, capital allocation discipline beyond a high ROE, or direct skin in the game.
Financial HealthWhile the current ROE is exceptionally high at 95.13%, the lack of 10-year ROE history, operating margin trends, detailed debt metrics, and owner earnings prevents a comprehensive assessment of financial health.
Margin of SafetyWithout a conservative estimate of intrinsic value, it is not possible to determine if the current market price offers a sufficient margin of safety.

While McDonald's operates within a clear circle of competence and possesses a strong economic moat, significant gaps in the provided financial data preclude a full assessment of its management discipline, long-term financial health, and crucially, whether the current price offers a margin of safety. Consequently, despite its robust business foundation, the company fails to meet all the stringent criteria required for a Buffett-style investment.

Educational interpretation generated by AI applying frameworks Warren Buffett documented in his shareholder letters and other public writings. Not a statement by Mr. Buffett or Berkshire Hathaway, and not investment advice.