AMOM8.410%
as of Oct 16
NVDA
GrowthNVIDIA CORP
NVIDIA Corporation operates as a data center scale AI infrastructure company. The company operates through two segments, Compute & Networking, and Graphics segments. The Compute & Networking segment provides data center accelerated computing and networking platforms and artificial intelligence solutions and software, and automotive platforms and autonomous and electric vehicle solutions, including software.
Close · 3M
-0.70%
Held by 6 AI ETFs
Signal performance
Each tracked ETF's moves on this stock, grouped by fund. Returns are measured from the signal date to the latest close — hypothetical, no commissions or slippage.
Buy signals9
Win rate0% (0/9)
Avg buy return-4.96%
AMOM · Weight increase · 3d
weight 8.010% → 8.250% (+0.240 pp)·stock up 4.3% in the 30 days before
Oct 14·entry $221.30·now $210.96Fresh
-4.67%
since Oct 14
AMOM · Weight increase · 2d
weight 8.010% → 8.180% (+0.170 pp)·stock up 8.3% in the 30 days before
Oct 13·entry $228.52·now $210.96Fresh
-7.68%
since Oct 13
-7.99%
since Oct 9
-8.47%
since Oct 8
PQUS · Weight increase · 2d
weight 7.230% → 7.390% (+0.160 pp)·stock down 3.0% in the 30 days before
Oct 21·entry $221.97·now $210.96Fresh
-4.96%
since Oct 21
PQUS · Weight decrease · 3d
weight 7.580% → 7.230% (-0.350 pp)·stock down 2.4% in the 30 days before
Oct 16·entry $214.13·now $210.96
-1.48%
since Oct 16
PQUS · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 7.580% → 7.250% (-0.330 pp)·stock up 1.6% in the 30 days before
Oct 15·entry $217.23·now $210.96
-2.89%
since Oct 15
PQUS · Weight decrease · 5d
weight 7.940% → 7.500% (-0.440 pp)·stock up 3.7% in the 30 days before
Oct 12·entry $226.32·now $210.96
-6.79%
since Oct 12
-7.99%
since Oct 9
-8.47%
since Oct 8
AIUP · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 4.760% → 4.580% (-0.180 pp)·stock down 5.9% in the 30 days before
Oct 22·entry $212.21·now $210.96
-0.59%
since Oct 22
AIUP · Weight increase · 2d
weight 4.570% → 4.700% (+0.130 pp)·stock up 4.3% in the 30 days before
Oct 14·entry $221.30·now $210.96Fresh
-4.67%
since Oct 14
AIUP · Weight decrease · 4d
weight 4.710% → 4.570% (-0.140 pp)·stock up 3.7% in the 30 days before
Oct 12·entry $226.32·now $210.96
-6.79%
since Oct 12
-7.99%
since Oct 9
-8.47%
since Oct 8
LQAI · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 4.370% → 4.220% (-0.150 pp)·stock up 1.6% in the 30 days before
Oct 15·entry $217.23·now $210.96
-2.89%
since Oct 15
LQAI · Weight decrease · 5d
weight 4.570% → 4.330% (-0.240 pp)·stock up 3.7% in the 30 days before
Oct 12·entry $226.32·now $210.96
-6.79%
since Oct 12
-7.99%
since Oct 9
-8.47%
since Oct 8
AIEQ · Weight decrease · 3d
weight 3.870% → 3.700% (-0.170 pp)·stock down 2.4% in the 30 days before
Oct 18·entry $217.09·now $210.96
-2.82%
since Oct 18
AIEQ · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 3.870% → 3.710% (-0.160 pp)·stock down 2.4% in the 30 days before
Oct 16·entry $214.13·now $210.96
-1.48%
since Oct 16
AIEQ · Weight decrease · 4d
weight 4.080% → 3.880% (-0.200 pp)·stock up 5.0% in the 30 days before
Oct 11·entry $226.32·now $210.96
-6.79%
since Oct 11
AIEQ · Weight decrease · 3d
weight 4.080% → 3.920% (-0.160 pp)·stock up 5.0% in the 30 days before
Oct 9·entry $229.28·now $210.96
-7.99%
since Oct 9
-8.47%
since Oct 8
BUZZ · Accumulation · 5d
weight 3.010% → 3.070% (+0.060 pp)·stock down 3.0% in the 30 days before
Oct 21·entry $221.97·now $210.96Fresh
-4.96%
since Oct 21
BUZZ · Accumulation · 5d
weight 3.000% → 3.050% (+0.050 pp)·stock down 4.8% in the 30 days before
Oct 20·entry $216.47·now $210.96Fresh
-2.55%
since Oct 20
BUZZ · Accumulation · 5d
weight 3.050% → 3.080% (+0.030 pp)·stock down 2.3% in the 30 days before
Oct 19·entry $217.09·now $210.96Fresh
-2.82%
since Oct 19
BUZZ · Weight increase · 3d
weight 3.000% → 3.090% (+0.090 pp)·stock up 4.3% in the 30 days before
Oct 14·entry $221.30·now $210.96Fresh
-4.67%
since Oct 14
BUZZ · Weight increase · 2d
weight 3.000% → 3.060% (+0.060 pp)·stock up 8.3% in the 30 days before
Oct 13·entry $228.52·now $210.96Fresh
-7.68%
since Oct 13
-7.99%
since Oct 9
Sell signals show what the stock did after the AI exited. A negative number means the AI's exit was well-timed.
Buffett-style framework
Too hard to callas of Oct 11
The AI ETFs hold NVDA as a core position (QRFT 8.8%, AMOM 8.2%, PQUS 7.6%), but in early October most were trimming it (AIEQ, AIUP, PQUS, AMOM, LQAI), with only brief accumulation by BUZZ and AIUP in between. The mild trimming is consistent with a Too Hard verdict on valuation and cyclicality grounds, yet the large remaining weights show the AIs are betting on exactly the forecast of AI-driven earnings that this framework declines to make.
- Circle of CompetenceAlthough NVIDIA's current earning power is extraordinary, 83% revenue growth and a market cap of $5.7 trillion rest on AI data-center capex cycles, hyperscaler customer concentration, and an architecture race with unclear long-run winners, so ten-year unit economics cannot be reliably projected.
- Economic MoatSkipped because the circle of competence test failed, though the CUDA software ecosystem and scale in accelerated computing are real advantages whose durability against custom silicon from its own customers is the open question.
- ManagementSkipped under the Too Hard verdict; candour and capital allocation are not assessable from the financial snapshot provided.
- Financial HealthSkipped under the Too Hard verdict, though the 110% ROE and rapid growth look exceptional, a ten-year record with no weak year cannot be confirmed from this data and the current figures may reflect a cyclical peak.
- Margin of SafetySkipped under the Too Hard verdict; a PER near 30 looks modest against growth, but at 45x EV/EBITDA and 29x book the margin of safety depends on peak-cycle earnings persisting.
NVIDIA has outstanding current returns and growth, but a business whose ten-year cash flows hinge on the pace of AI infrastructure spending and on competitive shifts falls outside a predictable circle of competence. The framework therefore declines to score it further, regardless of how attractive the headline multiples look. This is an educational reading, not a statement about the company by Mr. Buffett.
Educational interpretation generated by AI applying frameworks Warren Buffett documented in his shareholder letters and other public writings. Not a statement by Mr. Buffett or Berkshire Hathaway, and not investment advice.