PYPL · PAYPAL HOLDINGS INC.

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PayPal Holdings, Inc. operates a technology platform that enables digital payments for merchants and consumers worldwide. The company operates a two-sided network at scale that connects merchants and consumers that enables its customers to connect, transact, and send and receive payments through online and in person, as well as transfer and withdraw funds using various funding sources, such as bank accounts, PayPal or Venmo account balance, consumer credit and debit products, credit and debit cards, and cryptocurrencies, as well as other stored value products, including gift cards and eligible rewards. It provides payment solutions under the PayPal, PayPal Credit, Braintree, Venmo, Xoom, Hyperwallet, Honey, and Paidy names.

Close · 3M

+12.56%

Held by 1 AI ETF

BUZZ0.980%

as of Sep 2

Signal performance

Each tracked ETF's moves on this stock, grouped by fund. Returns are measured from the signal date to the latest close — hypothetical, no commissions or slippage.

Buy signals21

Win rate71% (15/21)

Avg buy return+8.72%

BUZZnow 0.980% of fund14 signals

BUZZ · Weight decrease · 3d

weight 1.100% → 0.940% (-0.160 pp)·stock down 7.9% in the 30 days before

Aug 31·entry $52.66·now $56.82

+7.89%

since Aug 31

BUZZ · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 1.100% → 0.960% (-0.140 pp)·stock down 6.9% in the 30 days before

Aug 28·entry $53.66·now $56.82

+5.89%

since Aug 28

BUZZ · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 0.820% → 0.800% (-0.020 pp)·stock up 25.0% in the 30 days before

Aug 12·entry $59.20·now $56.82

-4.02%

since Aug 12

BUZZ · Weight increase · 4d

weight 0.780% → 0.910% (+0.130 pp)·stock up 31.5% in the 30 days before

Jul 29·entry $58.35·now $56.82Fresh

-2.62%

since Jul 29

BUZZ · Weight increase · 3d

weight 0.780% → 0.870% (+0.090 pp)·stock up 31.7% in the 30 days before

Jul 28·entry $58.32·now $56.82Fresh

-2.57%

since Jul 28

BUZZ · Weight increase · 2d

weight 0.780% → 0.830% (+0.050 pp)·stock up 32.2% in the 30 days before

Jul 24·entry $56.15·now $56.82Fresh

+1.19%

since Jul 24

BUZZ · Accumulation · 5d

weight 0.550% → 0.820% (+0.270 pp)·stock up 35.0% in the 30 days before

Jul 20·entry $56.82·now $56.82Fresh

0.00%

since Jul 20

BUZZ · Accumulation · 5d

weight 0.550% → 0.820% (+0.270 pp)·stock up 29.6% in the 30 days before

Jul 17·entry $56.56·now $56.82Fresh

+0.46%

since Jul 17

BUZZ · Weight increase · 2d

weight 0.590% → 0.810% (+0.220 pp)·stock up 33.5% in the 30 days before

Jul 16·entry $56.73·now $56.82Fresh

+0.16%

since Jul 16

BUZZ · Weight increase · 2d

stock up 17.1% in the 30 days before

Jul 13·entry $47.65·now $56.82Chased

+19.24%

since Jul 13

BUZZ · Accumulation · 5d

stock up 2.1% in the 30 days before

Jul 2·entry $45.47·now $56.82Chased

+24.96%

since Jul 2

BUZZ · Weight decrease · 2d

stock down 3.5% in the 30 days before

Jun 30·entry $43.18·now $56.82

+31.59%

since Jun 30

BUZZ · Weight increase · 3d

stock up 1.2% in the 30 days before

Jun 26·entry $44.29·now $56.82Chased

+28.29%

since Jun 26

BUZZ · Weight increase · 2d

stock down 4.0% in the 30 days before

Jun 25·entry $42.38·now $56.82Chased

+34.07%

since Jun 25

LQAIno longer held7 signals

LQAI · Exit · 1d

weight 0.360% → 0 (exited)·stock up 34.2% in the 30 days before

Aug 6·entry $59.78·now $56.82

-4.95%

since Aug 6

LQAI · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 0.380% → 0.360% (-0.020 pp)·stock up 29.8% in the 30 days before

Jul 31·entry $57.21·now $56.82

-0.68%

since Jul 31

LQAI · Weight increase · 2d

weight 0.350% → 0.380% (+0.030 pp)·stock up 31.5% in the 30 days before

Jul 29·entry $58.35·now $56.82Fresh

-2.62%

since Jul 29

LQAI · Weight increase · 3d

weight 0.290% → 0.360% (+0.070 pp)·stock up 29.6% in the 30 days before

Jul 17·entry $56.56·now $56.82Fresh

+0.46%

since Jul 17

LQAI · Weight increase · 2d

weight 0.290% → 0.350% (+0.060 pp)·stock up 33.5% in the 30 days before

Jul 16·entry $56.73·now $56.82Fresh

+0.16%

since Jul 16

LQAI · Weight decrease · 2d

stock up 6.8% in the 30 days before

Jul 7·entry $45.65·now $56.82

+24.47%

since Jul 7

LQAI · Weight increase · 2d

stock up 2.1% in the 30 days before

Jul 2·entry $45.47·now $56.82Chased

+24.96%

since Jul 2

AIEQno longer held8 signals

AIEQ · Exit · 1d

weight 1.990% → 0 (exited)·stock up 29.8% in the 30 days before

Aug 2·entry $57.87·now $56.82

-1.81%

since Aug 2

AIEQ · Weight increase · 2d

weight 1.950% → 2.030% (+0.080 pp)·stock up 33.5% in the 30 days before

Jul 30·entry $57.65·now $56.82Fresh

-1.44%

since Jul 30

AIEQ · Weight increase · 2d

weight 1.900% → 1.950% (+0.050 pp)·stock up 32.2% in the 30 days before

Jul 26·entry $56.07·now $56.82Fresh

+1.34%

since Jul 26

AIEQ · Accumulation · 5d

weight 1.570% → 1.950% (+0.380 pp)·stock up 31.4% in the 30 days before

Jul 21·entry $55.85·now $56.82Fresh

+1.74%

since Jul 21

AIEQ · Weight increase · 3d

weight 1.610% → 1.940% (+0.330 pp)·stock up 29.6% in the 30 days before

Jul 19·entry $56.82·now $56.82Fresh

0.00%

since Jul 19

AIEQ · Weight increase · 2d

weight 1.610% → 1.920% (+0.310 pp)·stock up 29.6% in the 30 days before

Jul 17·entry $56.56·now $56.82Fresh

+0.46%

since Jul 17

AIEQ · Weight increase · 2d

stock up 2.1% in the 30 days before

Jul 3·entry $45.09·now $56.82Chased

+26.01%

since Jul 3

AIEQ · New entry · 1d

stock down 2.5% in the 30 days before

Jul 1·entry $44.07·now $56.82Chased

+28.93%

since Jul 1

Sell signals show what the stock did after the AI exited. A negative number means the AI's exit was well-timed.

Buffett-style framework

Too hard to callas of Jul 19

The AI ETFs (AIEQ, BUZZ, LQAI) show a recent trend of increasing their holdings in PayPal, indicating a positive outlook or accumulation strategy for them. This contrasts sharply with a Buffett-style framework, which finds the company's long-term earning power too unpredictable to confidently analyze, leading to a "Too Hard" verdict despite current valuation metrics.

Circle of CompetenceThe digital payments industry faces continuous structural disruption and intense competition, making the long-term predictability of PayPal's unit economics and earning power genuinely difficult to project over a ten-year horizon.
Economic MoatCannot assess this stage, as the company falls outside the circle of competence.
ManagementCannot assess this stage, as the company falls outside the circle of competence.
Financial HealthCannot assess this stage, as the company falls outside the circle of competence.
Margin of SafetyCannot assess this stage, as the company falls outside the circle of competence.

A Buffett-style analysis concludes that PayPal falls outside the circle of competence due to the unpredictable nature of the rapidly evolving digital payments industry and its intense competitive landscape. While the company's current financial metrics may appear attractive, the inability to reliably project future cash flows prevents a deeper assessment of its economic moat, management, or intrinsic value.

Educational interpretation generated by AI applying frameworks Warren Buffett documented in his shareholder letters and other public writings. Not a statement by Mr. Buffett or Berkshire Hathaway, and not investment advice.