BUZZ2.620%
as of Oct 22
SMCI
GrowthSUPER MICRO COMPUTER INC
Super Micro Computer, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, develops and sells server and storage solutions based on modular and open-standard architecture in the United States, Asia, Europe, and internationally. The company provides liquid and air-cooled AI servers for training and inferencing with integrated graphics processing units (GPUs) or PCIe based architectures; SuperBlade, MicroBlade, FlexTwin, GrandTwin, and BigTwin blade and multi-node systems; SuperStorage systems; Hyper, CloudDC, and WIO and rackmount systems; embedded (5G/IoT/Edge) systems; and MicroCloud server systems. It also offers workstations and networking devices; and modular server subsystems and accessories, including server boards, chassis, power supplies, and other accessories.
Close · 3M
+6.77%
Held by 3 AI ETFs
Signal performance
Each tracked ETF's moves on this stock, grouped by fund. Returns are measured from the signal date to the latest close — hypothetical, no commissions or slippage.
Buy signals8
Win rate0% (0/8)
Avg buy return-22.73%
BUZZ · Weight decrease · 7d
weight 3.410% → 2.450% (-0.960 pp)·stock down 21.6% in the 30 days before
Oct 16·entry $31.63·now $32.94
+4.14%
since Oct 16
BUZZ · Weight decrease · 6d
weight 3.410% → 2.570% (-0.840 pp)·stock down 4.8% in the 30 days before
Oct 15·entry $35.09·now $32.94
-6.13%
since Oct 15
BUZZ · Weight decrease · 5d
weight 3.410% → 2.920% (-0.490 pp)·stock up 0.4% in the 30 days before
Oct 14·entry $35.78·now $32.94
-7.94%
since Oct 14
BUZZ · Weight decrease · 4d
weight 3.410% → 3.050% (-0.360 pp)·stock up 6.3% in the 30 days before
Oct 13·entry $39.07·now $32.94
-15.69%
since Oct 13
BUZZ · Weight decrease · 3d
weight 3.410% → 3.100% (-0.310 pp)·stock down 0.3% in the 30 days before
Oct 12·entry $39.98·now $32.94
-17.61%
since Oct 12
BUZZ · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 3.410% → 3.200% (-0.210 pp)·stock up 12.0% in the 30 days before
Oct 9·entry $41.86·now $32.94
-21.31%
since Oct 9
BUZZ · Accumulation · 5d
weight 3.140% → 3.310% (+0.170 pp)·stock up 9.9% in the 30 days before
Oct 8·entry $42.77·now $32.94Fresh
-22.98%
since Oct 8
BUZZ · Accumulation · 5d
weight 3.200% → 3.410% (+0.210 pp)·stock up 11.6% in the 30 days before
Oct 7·entry $44.94·now $32.94Fresh
-26.70%
since Oct 7
-24.61%
since Oct 2
-21.42%
since Oct 1
-19.70%
since Sep 29
AMOM · Weight decrease · 5d
weight 1.150% → 0.980% (-0.170 pp)·stock up 0.4% in the 30 days before
Oct 14·entry $35.78·now $32.94
-7.94%
since Oct 14
AMOM · Weight decrease · 4d
weight 1.150% → 1.030% (-0.120 pp)·stock up 6.3% in the 30 days before
Oct 13·entry $39.07·now $32.94
-15.69%
since Oct 13
AMOM · Weight decrease · 3d
weight 1.150% → 1.050% (-0.100 pp)·stock down 0.3% in the 30 days before
Oct 12·entry $39.98·now $32.94
-17.61%
since Oct 12
AMOM · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 1.150% → 1.080% (-0.070 pp)·stock up 12.0% in the 30 days before
Oct 9·entry $41.86·now $32.94
-21.31%
since Oct 9
AMOM · Weight decrease · 3d
weight 1.270% → 1.100% (-0.170 pp)·stock up 9.8% in the 30 days before
Oct 6·entry $43.46·now $32.94
-24.21%
since Oct 6
AMOM · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 1.270% → 1.110% (-0.160 pp)·stock up 14.0% in the 30 days before
Oct 5·entry $43.19·now $32.94
-23.73%
since Oct 5
-19.70%
since Sep 29
-20.70%
since Sep 22
AIEQ · Weight decrease · 5d
weight 0.600% → 0.460% (-0.140 pp)·stock down 21.6% in the 30 days before
Oct 18·entry $32.10·now $32.94
+2.62%
since Oct 18
AIEQ · Weight decrease · 4d
weight 0.600% → 0.510% (-0.090 pp)·stock down 21.6% in the 30 days before
Oct 16·entry $31.63·now $32.94
+4.14%
since Oct 16
AIEQ · Weight decrease · 3d
weight 0.600% → 0.520% (-0.080 pp)·stock down 4.8% in the 30 days before
Oct 15·entry $35.09·now $32.94
-6.13%
since Oct 15
AIEQ · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 0.600% → 0.560% (-0.040 pp)·stock up 0.4% in the 30 days before
Oct 14·entry $35.78·now $32.94
-7.94%
since Oct 14
AIEQ · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 0.650% → 0.600% (-0.050 pp)·stock up 12.0% in the 30 days before
Oct 11·entry $39.98·now $32.94
-17.61%
since Oct 11
-23.73%
since Oct 3
-21.42%
since Oct 1
-21.16%
since Sep 27
-20.51%
since Sep 23
Sell signals show what the stock did after the AI exited. A negative number means the AI's exit was well-timed.
Buffett-style framework
Too hard to callas of Oct 18
The AI ETFs are mostly trimming. BUZZ cut from about 3.4% to 2.57% after a brief accumulation, AMOM has reduced steadily since early October, and AIEQ has cut for several days in a row, while QRFT holds only a token 0.04%. Their exit lines up with a Too Hard verdict, but for a different reason: they appear to be reacting to momentum or sentiment, while the framework steps aside because the earnings power can't be forecast.
- Circle of CompetenceSuper Micro assembles AI servers on thin hardware margins, and its earnings swing with GPU supply from a few chip vendors, customer concentration, and fast product cycles, so ten-year unit economics are hard to project.
- Economic Moat
- Management
- Financial Health
- Margin of Safety
A low PER of 10.29, a 25% ROE, and 78% revenue growth look attractive, but they reflect a cyclical AI-hardware boom and not durable, predictable earning power. The framework declines to score the moat, management, financials, or price, because a cheap-looking multiple on peak-like earnings is not a margin of safety when the earnings can't be projected.
Educational interpretation generated by AI applying frameworks Warren Buffett documented in his shareholder letters and other public writings. Not a statement by Mr. Buffett or Berkshire Hathaway, and not investment advice.