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SMCI

Growth

SUPER MICRO COMPUTER INC

Information Technology·Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals

Super Micro Computer, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, develops and sells server and storage solutions based on modular and open-standard architecture in the United States, Asia, Europe, and internationally. The company provides liquid and air-cooled AI servers for training and inferencing with integrated graphics processing units (GPUs) or PCIe based architectures; SuperBlade, MicroBlade, FlexTwin, GrandTwin, and BigTwin blade and multi-node systems; SuperStorage systems; Hyper, CloudDC, and WIO and rackmount systems; embedded (5G/IoT/Edge) systems; and MicroCloud server systems. It also offers workstations and networking devices; and modular server subsystems and accessories, including server boards, chassis, power supplies, and other accessories.

Close · 3M

-25.48%

SMCI · 3M

-25.48%

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Held by 3 AI ETFs

BUZZ2.810%

as of Jul 17

AIEQ0.210%

as of Jul 20

QRFT0.040%

as of Jul 8

Signal performance

Each tracked ETF's moves on this stock, grouped by fund. Returns are measured from the signal date to the latest close — hypothetical, no commissions or slippage.

Buy signals10
Win rate0% (0/10)
Avg buy return-45.64%
BUZZnow 2.810% of fund21 signals

BUZZ · Weight decrease · 2d

BUZZ, tracking an index that ranks stocks by positive-sentiment intensity derived from NLP analysis of social media and news, registered a consecutive weight decrease for SMCI. This gradual reduction from 2.72% to 2.65% between July 13 and July 15 indicates a weakening positive sentiment for Super Micro Computer among the online sources BUZZ's algorithmic sentiment tracker monitors. The stock's significant 30-day return of -48.0% likely contributed to a downturn in the positive discourse surrounding the company, affecting its rank within the approximately 75 holdings. While the fund rebalances monthly at index reconstitution, these incremental daily shifts reflect how quickly market sentiment, a key driver for BUZZ, can evolve.

weight 2.720% → 2.650% (-0.070 pp)·stock down 11.7% in the 30 days before

Jul 15·entry $26.89·now $23.83

-11.38%
since Jul 15

BUZZ · Weight decrease · 4d

VanEck's BUZZ ETF, which gauges positive-sentiment intensity from social media and news using NLP, recorded a consecutive decrease in its SMCI allocation. This pattern suggests a decline in the positive sentiment surrounding Super Micro Computer, a key signal for this fund's algorithmic tracking. With a 30-day return of -24.1%, the stock's market performance likely dampened crowd enthusiasm, a factor BUZZ's methodology is designed to capture. As an algorithmic sentiment tracker rebalancing its approximately 75-stock index monthly, BUZZ's move reflects these shifts in public perception, reducing SMCI's standing within its portfolio.

weight 2.750% → 2.550% (-0.200 pp)·stock down 44.0% in the 30 days before

Jul 7·entry $26.25·now $23.83

-9.22%
since Jul 7

BUZZ · Weight decrease · 3d

The observed pattern in BUZZ’s SMCI allocation shows a consistent downward drift, with the stock's weight receding from 3.15% to 2.56% across a two-week period, punctuated by only one minor uptick. This continuous, though not sudden, reduction aligns with the algorithmic sentiment tracker's method of identifying positive-sentiment intensity, particularly as SMCI’s price has experienced a significant 26.2% decline over the past 30 days, currently trading far below its yearly peak. A prolonged decline in SMCI's stock price, marked by a 38.7% negative return over the past year and its current valuation at 43% of its 52-week high, predictably erodes the kind of intense positive discussion across social media, blogs, and news that BUZZ's NLP methodology seeks. Although BUZZ rebalances monthly, the daily shifts in weight indicate an ongoing decrement in SMCI's positive sentiment ranking within the underlying index, directly reflecting the ebbing retail-crowd enthusiasm for a stock that has been trending downward. Even with SMCI's 56.24% revenue growth and 18.22% ROE suggesting underlying financial health, the prevailing price trend has evidently suppressed the critical mass of favorable social media mentions needed to maintain or increase its allocation within this sentiment-driven ETF.

weight 2.750% → 2.560% (-0.190 pp)·stock down 42.7% in the 30 days before

Jul 6·entry $27.19·now $23.83

-12.36%
since Jul 6

BUZZ · Weight decrease · 2d

BUZZ exhibited a sustained decrease in its SMCI weighting, moving from 3.17% to 2.60% over eight trading days, interrupted by a single modest rebound before continuing its descent. This series of daily adjustments, primarily a continuous scaling back, suggests a response to evolving sentiment rather than a sharp, sudden reallocation. Given SMCI’s significant underperformance, with its price down 18.7% over 30 days and 33.5% over the past year, its current price of $27.19 sits at 45% of its 52-week high. Such prolonged price depreciation for the Information Technology company would predictably diminish positive discussion across social media and news platforms. As an algorithmic sentiment tracker, VanEck's BUZZ fund, which ranks stocks by positive-sentiment intensity derived from NLP analysis, would naturally reflect this erosion of retail-crowd enthusiasm for SMCI, with its consistent reduction in weight aligning directly with its mandate to hold stocks demonstrating higher positive sentiment.

weight 2.750% → 2.600% (-0.150 pp)·stock down 45.7% in the 30 days before

Jul 2·entry $27.22·now $23.83

-12.45%
since Jul 2

BUZZ · Weight decrease · 5d

The gradual, consecutive decrease in SMCI's weight within BUZZ, from 3.28% to 2.67% over seven trading days, directly reflects a sustained erosion of positive sentiment detected by the fund's NLP algorithms. This particular cadence of reduction in exposure to SMCI aligns with BUZZ's method of tracking a broad range of social media, blogs, and news for sentiment signals, especially as the stock trades at $29.33, significantly down at 48% of its 52-week high. A continuous decline in price, with a one-year return of -32.0%, often translates into dampened enthusiasm and fewer positive mentions across the retail-driven platforms BUZZ monitors, causing the algorithmic sentiment tracker to diminish the stock's ranking. Even with a 56.24% revenue growth and an 18.22% return on equity, the persistent negative price momentum likely overrides these fundamentals in the short-term sentiment analysis, leading to SMCI's reduced allocation in the index.

weight 3.280% → 2.670% (-0.610 pp)·stock down 31.8% in the 30 days before

Jun 29·entry $28.15·now $23.83

-15.35%
since Jun 29

BUZZ · Weight decrease · 4d

The multi-day weight reduction for SMCI within BUZZ, gradually declining from 3.28% to 2.98% between June 23 and June 26, reflects the algorithmic sentiment tracker's response to changing public perception. With Super Micro Computer's price at $28.15, hovering at 46% of its 52-week high and showing -9.3% and -12.5% returns over 30 and 90 days respectively, sentiment drawn from social media and news sources would logically trend away from strong positivity. Despite the company's 56.24% revenue growth and 18.22% ROE, the persistent negative price action, including a -35.6% return over the past year, likely dampens the collective retail enthusiasm BUZZ aims to capture. This specific pattern indicates the fund's NLP-driven index is detecting a lessening intensity of positive mentions for SMCI in the public discourse.

weight 3.280% → 2.980% (-0.300 pp)·stock down 19.8% in the 30 days before

Jun 26·entry $30.63·now $23.83

-22.20%
since Jun 26

BUZZ · Weight decrease · 3d

SMCI trades at $30.63, precisely half its 52-week high of $60.71, after a -7.3% drop over the last 30 days and a -26.3% decline over the past year. This current valuation, combined with recent negative momentum, directly influences the sentiment signals that BUZZ tracks. As an algorithmic sentiment tracker reflecting retail-crowd signals from social media and news, BUZZ’s index registered a declining positive sentiment for SMCI, leading to consecutive weight reductions from 3.17% on June 23rd to 3.12% by June 25th. Despite SMCI’s fundamental metrics, including 56.24% revenue growth and an 18.22% return on equity, and a PER of 16.59, the ETF’s passive rebalancing follows the observed weakening sentiment rather than traditional valuation. BUZZ’s methodology is entirely driven by its NLP analysis of publicly available chatter, indicating that the collective online perception of SMCI has softened, overriding its recent 90-day return of +3.1% and making it a less favored holding for the fund at this specific $30.63 price point.

weight 3.280% → 3.120% (-0.160 pp)·stock down 14.6% in the 30 days before

Jun 25·entry $31.68·now $23.83

-24.78%
since Jun 25

BUZZ · Weight decrease · 2d

SMCI's 56.24% revenue growth and 18.22% ROE, alongside a PER of 16.59, present fundamental characteristics that often fuel online discussion, which VanEck's BUZZ ETF, a sentiment tracker using NLP, monitors for positive intensity. The algorithmic index, rebalancing monthly, relies solely on this social sentiment rather than traditional valuation. The consecutive decrease in SMCI's weight within BUZZ, from 2.81% on June 12th to 2.54% by June 17th, suggests a measured decline in the positive sentiment signals the ETF collects from social media. This shift in sentiment occurred during a period where SMCI's stock saw a -1.0% 30-day return and was trading at $31.68, representing only 52% of its 52-week high, indicating a weakening retail-crowd signal despite a +5.2% 90-day return.

weight 3.280% → 3.150% (-0.130 pp)·stock down 8.8% in the 30 days before

Jun 24·entry $32.45·now $23.83

-26.56%
since Jun 24

BUZZ · Weight increase · 2d

Currently trading at $33.32, SMCI sits at 55% of its 52-week high, following a -22.3% one-year return and a recent 30-day dip of -0.6% despite a +9.5% gain over 90 days. This trajectory suggests the stock, having seen a significant prior decline, likely became a topic of increased positive discussion across social media, blogs, and news platforms, attracting renewed attention from retail-oriented sentiment. VanEck’s BUZZ ETF, which tracks an index based on NLP analysis of such sentiment, registered this shift, leading to SMCI’s weight in the fund increasing from 2.54% on June 17th to 3.28% by June 22nd. This sentiment surge coincides with SMCI’s underlying financials, including a 56.24% revenue growth and 18.22% return on equity, potentially influencing the positive online conversations.

weight 2.540% → 3.280% (+0.740 pp)·stock up 6.0% in the 30 days before

Jun 22·entry $35.46·now $23.83Fresh

-32.80%
since Jun 22

BUZZ · Weight decrease · 4d

VanEck’s BUZZ ETF, which ranks stocks by positive-sentiment intensity using NLP across social media, blogs, news, and message boards, detected a sustained drop in favorable sentiment for SMCI, prompting the consecutive decrease in its portfolio weight from 3.96% to 2.54%. As an algorithmic sentiment tracker that rebalances its ~75 US large/mid cap holdings monthly, the fund’s index responded to the shifting public perception. SMCI’s 30-day return of -8.8% and its current price at $30.66, which sits at 51% of its 52-week high, likely contributed to the declining sentiment scores measured by the index.

weight 2.940% → 2.540% (-0.400 pp)·stock down 10.0% in the 30 days before

Jun 17·entry $27.78·now $23.83

-14.22%
since Jun 17

BUZZ · Weight decrease · 3d

The weight-change pattern for SMCI in BUZZ shows an initial sharp drop from 3.75% on June 9 to 2.79% on June 10, followed by a more gradual, but consistent, consecutive decrease from June 12 to June 16, settling at 2.66%. This sustained reduction closely aligns with BUZZ's algorithmic sentiment tracking methodology, especially as SMCI's stock price experienced significant downward pressure, with a negative 19.8% return over the past 30 days and trading at only 46% of its 52-week high. As an NLP-driven index capturing positive sentiment from social media and news, BUZZ would naturally reduce exposure to a stock like SMCI, where prolonged price depreciation has likely diminished the collective positive perception among the retail-crowd signals it monitors. Consequently, despite SMCI's substantial 56.24% revenue growth, the prevailing negative sentiment and price performance, rather than fundamental figures, appear to be the primary drivers for BUZZ's decision to consistently lower its allocation to the Information Technology company.

weight 2.940% → 2.660% (-0.280 pp)·stock down 5.9% in the 30 days before

Jun 16·entry $29.22·now $23.83

-18.45%
since Jun 16

BUZZ · Weight decrease · 2d

SMCI’s financial metrics, including a PER of 15.41, PBR of 4.64, revenue growth of 56.24%, and ROE of 18.22%, provide the fundamental backdrop against which public sentiment is formed. BUZZ, as a VanEck algorithmic sentiment tracker that passively follows its index based on NLP-derived positive sentiment, responded to shifts in retail crowd perception rather than directly evaluating these figures. The consecutive weight decrease for SMCI in BUZZ, from 4.02% on June 4 to 2.74% by June 15, directly reflects a decline in positive sentiment detected by the ETF’s methodology. This pattern materialized as SMCI traded near $29.22, significantly below its $60.71 52-week high and after recording 90-day and 1-year returns of -15.0% and -33.8%, suggesting that sustained negative social media discourse about the stock influenced the index's monthly rebalance.

weight 2.940% → 2.740% (-0.200 pp)·stock down 6.6% in the 30 days before

Jun 15·entry $30.85·now $23.83

-22.76%
since Jun 15

BUZZ · Weight decrease · 2d

SUPER MICRO COMPUTER INC's financial metrics, including its 56.24% revenue growth and 18.22% ROE, likely fueled positive discussions across social media, blogs, and news, which VanEck's BUZZ ETF, as an algorithmic sentiment tracker, would identify and incorporate into its index ranking. This positive sentiment initially sustained SMCI's allocation within BUZZ, despite the stock's $31.97 price being significantly off its 52-week high, while it recorded a +16.7% 30-day return. However, the consecutive weight decrease detected from June 8th to June 10th, culminating in a significant reduction to 2.79%, indicates a detected shift in collective positive-sentiment intensity. This change suggests that BUZZ's NLP method, tracking a broad retail-crowd signal, registered a moderation of positive sentiment for SMCI around the time of its recent price appreciation, even with the company's P/E at 15.41.

weight 3.960% → 2.790% (-1.170 pp)·stock down 12.7% in the 30 days before

Jun 10·entry $29.27·now $23.83

-18.59%
since Jun 10

BUZZ · Weight decrease · 3d

weight 4.190% → 3.840% (-0.350 pp)·stock up 20.1% in the 30 days before

Jun 5·entry $41.64·now $23.83

-42.77%
since Jun 5

BUZZ · Accumulation · 5d

weight 3.270% → 4.020% (+0.750 pp)·stock up 68.5% in the 30 days before

Jun 4·entry $46.90·now $23.83Fresh

-49.19%
since Jun 4

BUZZ · Accumulation · 6d

stock up 69.8% in the 30 days before

Jun 3·entry $47.42·now $23.83Fresh

-49.75%
since Jun 3

BUZZ · Accumulation · 7d

stock up 85.2% in the 30 days before

Jun 2·entry $50.17·now $23.83Fresh

-52.50%
since Jun 2

BUZZ · Accumulation · 6d

stock up 71.1% in the 30 days before

Jun 1·entry $46.88·now $23.83Fresh

-49.17%
since Jun 1

BUZZ · Accumulation · 6d

stock up 75.1% in the 30 days before

May 29·entry $46.09·now $23.83Fresh

-48.30%
since May 29

BUZZ · Accumulation · 6d

stock up 51.6% in the 30 days before

May 28·entry $41.30·now $23.83Fresh

-42.30%
since May 28

BUZZ · Weight increase · 3d

stock up 37.1% in the 30 days before

May 27·entry $38.19·now $23.83Fresh

-37.60%
since May 27
AIEQnow 0.210% of fund4 signals

AIEQ · Weight decrease · 2d

SMCI is trading near the lower end of its 52-week range, with its current price of $24.18 representing 40% of its 52-week high, reflecting substantial negative returns across the 30-day, 90-day, and one-year periods. Given AIEQ's reliance on IBM Watson NLP to process news, social posts, and other data for daily sentiment and fundamental analysis, the consistent decline in SMCI's weighting indicates the system likely detected a sustained deterioration in its daily ranking or an increased risk signal from EquBot's overlay. This downward adjustment occurred despite the company's 56.24% revenue growth and 18.22% ROE, suggesting the AI's daily re-evaluation of thousands of data points perceived an accumulating negative sentiment or a shifting risk assessment that outweighed these financial figures as the stock continued its price trajectory. The fund's daily rebalancing and high-turnover nature mean even a slight persistent negative signal from Watson's sentiment analysis, when combined with SMCI's significant price depreciation and proximity to its 52-week low, prompted the consecutive reduction in exposure to this Information Technology stock.

weight 0.240% → 0.210% (-0.030 pp)·stock down 17.2% in the 30 days before

Jul 19·entry $23.83·now $23.83

0.00%
since Jul 19

AIEQ · Weight decrease · 2d

SMCI's fundamentals, including a 56.24% revenue growth and 18.22% ROE, generally align with AIEQ's hybrid style that considers strong underlying performance alongside sentiment. However, AIEQ's daily rebalancing, driven by IBM Watson NLP, showed a general downtrend in SMCI's allocation, moving from 0.12% to 0.07% between June 3rd and June 11th, a period when the stock had seen a +16.7% 30-day return. This pattern suggests that despite recent price appreciation to $31.97, the fund's underlying sentiment analysis, which processes vast amounts of textual data, likely detected a relative shift in favor of other opportunities or a waning positive sentiment for Super Micro Computer. Given AIEQ’s focus on a broad market and its high-turnover characteristic, this move reflects EquBot’s risk overlay converting a depreciating sentiment or relative value signal into a reduced position within its 140-180 stock portfolio.

weight 0.110% → 0.070% (-0.040 pp)·stock down 2.5% in the 30 days before

Jun 11·entry $31.97·now $23.83

-25.46%
since Jun 11

AIEQ · Sudden change · 1d

stock up 75.1% in the 30 days before

May 30·entry $46.88·now $23.83

-49.17%
since May 30

AIEQ · Weight increase · 2d

stock up 51.6% in the 30 days before

May 28·entry $41.30·now $23.83Fresh

-42.30%
since May 28
QRFTnow 0.040% of fund1 signal

QRFT · New entry · 1d

stock up 85.2% in the 30 days before

Jun 2·entry $50.17·now $23.83Fresh

-52.50%
since Jun 2

Sell signals show what the stock did after the AI exited. A negative number means the AI's exit was well-timed.

Buffett-style framework

Too hard to callas of Jul 19

AI ETFs, specifically AIEQ and BUZZ, are showing a clear trend of decreasing their weight in Super Micro Computer Inc. This cautious or bearish stance from the AI algorithms aligns with our 'Too Hard' verdict, suggesting a shared perception of difficulty in long-term predictability or increasing risk.

  • Circle of CompetenceThe technology hardware industry, characterized by rapid innovation and cyclical demand, makes reliably projecting ten-year cash flows and stable unit economics genuinely unpredictable.
  • Economic MoatWhile the company operates in a demanding technology sector, it is unclear if it possesses a durable economic moat from brand, switching costs, or significant scale advantages that would persist for a decade.
  • ManagementInsufficient information is available to evaluate management's candor, capital allocation discipline, or personal alignment through significant ownership.
  • Financial HealthWhile current ROE is strong at 18.22%, comprehensive data on 10-year average ROE, operating margins, debt structure, and owner earnings are not provided to fully assess financial health.
  • Margin of SafetyWithout a reliable projection of future cash flows and intrinsic value, it is impossible to assess if the current price offers a sufficient margin of safety.

Super Micro Computer Inc operates in a technologically dynamic industry, making its long-term unit economics and cash flow predictability highly challenging to project. This inherent unpredictability leads to a 'Too Hard' verdict, as the business does not fit within the framework's circle of competence for reliable valuation. Without a stable and predictable earning power, assessing a durable economic moat, detailed financial health over a decade, or a margin of safety becomes impractical.

Educational interpretation generated by AI applying frameworks Warren Buffett documented in his shareholder letters and other public writings. Not a statement by Mr. Buffett or Berkshire Hathaway, and not investment advice.