XOM · EXXONMOBIL HOLDINGS CORP

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Exxon Mobil Corporation engages in the exploration and production of crude oil and natural gas in the United States, Canada, and internationally. The company operates through Upstream, Energy Products, Chemical Products, and Specialty Products segments. Its Upstream segment explores for and produces crude oil and natural gas.

Close · 3M

+8.93%

Held by 2 AI ETFs

PQUS0.350%

as of Sep 1

LQAI0.270%

as of Sep 2

Signal performance

Each tracked ETF's moves on this stock, grouped by fund. Returns are measured from the signal date to the latest close — hypothetical, no commissions or slippage.

Buy signals5

Win rate80% (4/5)

Avg buy return+3.89%

PQUSnow 0.350% of fund7 signals

PQUS · Weight decrease · 3d

weight 0.390% → 0.340% (-0.050 pp)·stock down 0.2% in the 30 days before

Aug 29·entry $160.95·now $162.21

+0.78%

since Aug 29

PQUS · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 0.390% → 0.350% (-0.040 pp)·stock down 0.2% in the 30 days before

Aug 28·entry $156.71·now $162.21

+3.51%

since Aug 28

PQUS · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 0.410% → 0.370% (-0.040 pp)·stock up 9.7% in the 30 days before

Aug 15·entry $161.46·now $162.21

+0.46%

since Aug 15

PQUS · Weight increase · 2d

weight 0.450% → 0.470% (+0.020 pp)·stock up 14.6% in the 30 days before

Jul 25·entry $154.77·now $162.21Drifting

+4.81%

since Jul 25

PQUS · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 0.440% → 0.410% (-0.030 pp)·stock down 6.7% in the 30 days before

Jul 11·entry $144.51·now $162.21

+12.25%

since Jul 11

PQUS · Weight decrease · 3d

stock down 6.1% in the 30 days before

May 30·entry $149.38·now $162.21

+8.59%

since May 30

PQUS · Weight decrease · 2d

stock down 6.1% in the 30 days before

May 29·entry $145.26·now $162.21

+11.67%

since May 29

LQAInow 0.270% of fund4 signals

LQAI · Weight increase · 2d

weight 0.250% → 0.270% (+0.020 pp)·stock up 6.1% in the 30 days before

Sep 1·entry $164.55·now $162.21Fresh

-1.42%

since Sep 1

LQAI · New entry · 1d

weight 0 → 0.250% (new)·stock up 9.7% in the 30 days before

Aug 6·entry $154.84·now $162.21Drifting

+4.76%

since Aug 6

LQAI · Exit · 1d

weight 0.100% → 0 (exited)·stock down 6.8% in the 30 days before

Jul 7·entry $141.69·now $162.21

+14.48%

since Jul 7

LQAI · Exit · 1d

weight 0.100% → 0 (exited)·stock down 8.8% in the 30 days before

Jul 1·entry $136.28·now $162.21

+19.03%

since Jul 1

AIEQno longer held7 signals

AIEQ · Exit · 1d

weight 0.050% → 0 (exited)·stock up 6.1% in the 30 days before

Sep 1·entry $164.55·now $162.21

-1.42%

since Sep 1

AIEQ · New entry · 1d

weight 0 → 0.050% (new)·stock up 14.1% in the 30 days before

Aug 2·entry $155.06·now $162.21Drifting

+4.61%

since Aug 2

AIEQ · Exit · 1d

weight 0.990% → 0 (exited)·stock down 8.8% in the 30 days before

Jul 1·entry $136.28·now $162.21

+19.03%

since Jul 1

AIEQ · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 1.130% → 1.070% (-0.060 pp)·stock down 3.0% in the 30 days before

Jun 14·entry $140.92·now $162.21

+15.11%

since Jun 14

AIEQ · Weight increase · 2d

weight 1.040% → 1.100% (+0.060 pp)·stock down 1.8% in the 30 days before

Jun 4·entry $152.04·now $162.21Drifting

+6.69%

since Jun 4

AIEQ · Weight decrease · 2d

stock down 2.4% in the 30 days before

May 28·entry $146.96·now $162.21

+10.38%

since May 28

AIEQ · Weight decrease · 2d

stock up 2.9% in the 30 days before

May 24·entry $149.81·now $162.21

+8.28%

since May 24

BUZZno longer held1 signal

BUZZ · Exit · 1d

stock up 3.9% in the 30 days before

May 21·entry $155.29·now $162.21

+4.46%

since May 21

Sell signals show what the stock did after the AI exited. A negative number means the AI's exit was well-timed.

Buffett-style framework

Too hard to callas of Aug 16

The AI ETFs show mixed signals regarding ExxonMobil, with some initiating new positions and one decreasing its weight, implying varying views on its investment merits. This contrasts with the Buffett-style framework's 'Too Hard' verdict, which refrains from investment due to the fundamental unpredictability of the company's long-term earnings, irrespective of current price or perceived value.

Circle of CompetenceThe company's earnings are highly sensitive to volatile global commodity prices for oil and natural gas, making ten-year cash flow projections genuinely unpredictable.
Economic MoatAssessment of a durable economic moat is not pursued as the fundamental predictability of earnings required in Stage 1 was not met.
ManagementEvaluation of management's qualities and capital allocation discipline is not conducted as the company's business model falls outside the circle of competence for predictable earnings.
Financial HealthFinancial health metrics such as ROE, operating margins, debt levels, and owner earnings are not assessed due to the inherent unpredictability of the company's long-term earning power.
Margin of SafetyA margin of safety cannot be established without a reliable basis for projecting future owner earnings and intrinsic value, which was deemed unpredictable in Stage 1.

Applying the Buffett-style framework, ExxonMobil is deemed 'Too Hard' for investment due to the fundamental unpredictability of its cash flows, which are heavily exposed to volatile global commodity prices. The inability to reliably project long-term earnings prevents any further assessment of management, financial health, or margin of safety within this framework. This makes it an unsuitable candidate for value investors prioritizing predictable earning power.

Educational interpretation generated by AI applying frameworks Warren Buffett documented in his shareholder letters and other public writings. Not a statement by Mr. Buffett or Berkshire Hathaway, and not investment advice.